Tuesday, 24 June 2008

AI 1: AI resurgence will lead to US$600bn+ R&D spend over the next 10 years

2008 will be seen as the resurgence of sustainable AI after two major AI Winters since 1956. Refer to blog references AI.10.

AI has been given the credibility by web futurists, such as Nick Carr, because they have define the roadmap after Web 3.0 ‘Cloud Computing’ as being Web 4.0 ‘AI Complementing Humans’ and Web 5.0 ‘AI Supplanting Humans’.

The robotic market with embedded Artificial Intelligence is already calculated to be worth US$182bn by 2018. TAITRA President Chao Yuen-Chuan stated in 2007 "Robots will be closely integrated with different kinds of artificial intelligence in the near future," and the Taiwan Industrial Development Bureau under the Ministry of Economic Affairs predicts that the Taiwan aims to have 6% of this market. Refer to blog references AI.4/6/7 to see emergent consumer robots.

This US$182bn robotic and AI market has been calculated without considering the impact of Web 3.0, 4.0 and 5.0.

Consumer robotics will naturally converge with the Cloud and thus radically change the software economics for robots and indeed this is likely to lead to increasing the market size way beyond the US$182bn.

Turning towards Web 4.0 and Web 5.0, Microsoft could well spend US$60bn AI R&D in a 10 year period to 2018 (refer to blog reference AI.2/8).

With AI rapidly moving towards its natural habitat of mobile phones (refer to blog reference AI.3/9) and voice systems for digital conversations it will be surprising that Microsoft has no more than 10% of the AI R&D market including for robotics AI.

This means the AI R&D over the next 10 years is likely to be in excess of US$600bn as AI becomes pervasive dictating all digital interactions and transactions.

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