AI 25 When will Cuil (one week from launch) become a billion dollar business?

As artificial intelligence is leading to new smarter search engines the market is wide open to new players.

Powerset was snapped up by Microsoft.

Now, Cuil has just been launched by ex Google people. That is a scary thought. Watch out Google!

Cuil is an old Irish word for knowledge. Smart!

Cuil claim they search more pages on the Web than anyone else—three times as many as Google and ten times as many as Microsoft. Wow! It has a $33m war chest with more to come as they gain traction.

Cuil feels better than Google.

The market is changing as web 3.0 gains traction with smart new services. Cuil is likely to be snapped up also. The question is by whom? And when? Is it worth $1bn already? If not, when?

The global poker game around new technologies is gaining momentum.

Innovation is being powered by start-ups.

AI 24 Amazon investment increased in human-powered artificial intelligence

Jeff Bezos announced to investors that his ‘Artificial Artificial Intelligence’ flagship Mechanic Turk is to be revamped to be usable by business people and not just software programmers.

This is part of the Cloud Computing movement towards ‘web 4.0 Artificial Intelligence Complements Humans’.

AI 23: Human IQ has peaked creating unprecedented demand for artificial intelligence

Psychologists have noted that average IQ scores around the world have consistently increased over the past 50 years. This phenomenon, named after the researcher who documented its existence, is known as the “Flynn Effect.”

However, studies have shown that the Flynn effect may have ended in some developed nations starting in the mid 1990s.

Whether these higher IQs are the same as increased intelligence is still controversial.

Yet the knowledge needed to be applied by people is increasing exponentially and is increasing I complexity.

The bottom mine is that artificial intelligence is now needed more than every before to compliment and supplant human IQ as complexity, velocity and volatility accelerates change.

AI 22: Google to evolve into Artificial Intelligence

Larry Page and Sergy Brin, co-founders of the Google search engine, both believe that Google will eventually evolve into a form of artificial intelligence, which will be directly connected to the human brain in some manner to enhance its capacity.

In the Nicolas Carr book The Big Switch Steve Jurvetson, Silicon Valley VC states
“Every time I talk about Google’s future with Larry Page he argues that it will become artificial intelligence.”

It is now wonder Nicolas Carr identified the web road-map as:

Web 4.0 Artificial Intelligence compliments humans

Web 5.0 Artificial Intelligence supplants humans

A21: Microsoft launches AI receptionist as it moves ahead in Web 4.0

Microsoft announced a robot that acts as a receptionist. They have selected a role that will be the future meet and greet for every organisation on the planet.

Chief Research and Strategy officer Craig Mundie demonstrated a software-based robot that uses a combination of visual and voice recognition as well as speech synthesis to handle basic tasks.


It is interesting that this chatterbot has been positioned as a software robot, which provides a valuable insight to Microsoft’s marketing strategy for artificial intelligence.

Microsoft itself plans to use the software robot to handle shuttle requests in its own buildings, which typically have a pair of receptionists to handle visitors and shuttle requests.


In a video, two Microsoft employees approach the robot, who said (in a rather robotic voice)

"Which building do you want to go to?"

After checking that she heard the visitors correctly and double-checking both workers want to take the same shuttle, the robot declares:

"It should be here in four minutes."


"This is what a natural user interface is all about and it won't be just a receptionist," Mundie said.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg."

Craig Mundie is Ray Ozzie’s peer.

It is Craig that is using 25% of Microsoft’s R&D budget for AI to take the lead for Web 4.0 (refer to blog reference AI 1).

The Cloud Wars will heat up next year as AI becomes the differentiator for the Cloud. Look what Mundie said to Wall Street analysts at the launch of their AI receptionist.

"FY 09 will round out the story with some significant announcements".

Google, Amazon, Salesforce, Yahoo! And the other Cloud players beware!

AI 20: Linden Labs makes it easy to bring content into its 3D World

The massive 3D World called SecondLife is making it easy to transfer content from Open Systems to its Closed System (refer to blog reference AI 15).

The ability to take Web 2.0 and Office content into the 3D World is a key enabler that threatens all the organisations reliant upon the old Internet.

Google, amongst many others, cannot afford to let this happen unless it owns the Closed Systems.

Linden Labs is now a target for acquisition and it can command a very high price indeed.

The picture shows a solution already within SecondLife using a system built by Rivers Run Red, which imports content to 3D Worlds; the tree shown here, for example, changes colour in response to real-time stock-market data.

AI 19: IBM puts the spotlight on Artificial Intelligence for creating a paradigm shift

IBM hosted a collaborative event at their Almaden Research Center called "The New AI: New Paradigms for Using Computers Workshop".

Oren Etzioni, director of the Turing Center at the University of Washington said AI will change the dynamics of search. He stated that semantic advances are showing that simple sentences can be understood.

However, Etzioni is concerned about the weakness in AI’s use of Natural language for avatars as they need to be reliable.


As previously reported the AI Winters (refer to blog reference 10) the term artificial intelligence had been out of favour for 20 years but Stefan Nusser, IBM said that AI "re-emergence” is now underway.


The major AI projects covered at this event included:
1. Using AI to Identify Interesting Assertions. With this University of Washington project, machine learning is combined with human computation to identify which assertions extracted from the Internet are more interesting. TextRunner is used in this project as well as content creation sites like Wikipedia.

2. Data Visualizations and Continuous Interfaces. This Yahoo effort features various applications offering advanced visualizations of data, such as FAA flight paths.

3. Towards PR2: A Personalized Robot Platform. This Willow Garage effort features a hardware and software platform for robots that do tasks for humans in human environments. In collaboration with Stanford University, an open-source robot operating system is being developed as well.

4. SparTag.us: A Low Cost Tagging System for Foraging of Web Content. This Palo Alto Research Center (PARC) project features a new tagging system with a "Clik2Tag" technique to provide low-cost tagging of Web content. Users can highlight text snippets and collect tagged or highlighted paragraphs into a system-created notebook that can be browsed and searched.

5. AALIM: Diagnostic Decision Support for Cardiologists. This is an IBM-developed decision support system to identify similar patient records and aid in diagnostic decision support.

6. CALO (Cognitive Assistant that Learns and Organizes) Express. This is a Windows-based version of SRI International's CALO project to build an intelligent personal assistant. For example, it can figure out RSS feeds and suggest new feeds for the user.

AI 18 Microsoft uses Xbox to launch 3D Worlds and attack Google Search

Microsoft is to use its Xbox as part of its Cloud Strategy to develop Closed Systems (refer to blog reference AI 16).

It announced that the Xbox software will be revamped later this year through downloadables to accommodate avatars and social networking.

This means Microsoft will be using its formidable gaming artificial intelligence as a way to create 3D Worlds to attack Google’s core advertising revenues which are reliant upon Open Systems (refer to blog reference AI 15).

This move should not be underestimated, as the 3D World rewrites the rule book for search engines as one can navigate very fast through complexity using visualisation techniques.

Microsoft follows Apple with the use of devices as a gatekeeper to Cloud Services. The Google Android for mobile needs a lock-in with devices if it is to compete against the Microsoft and Apple grip upon controlling cloud services using non PC devices.

The cloud positioning for Web 4.0 ‘Artificial Intelligence Complementing Humans’ and Web 5.0 ‘Artificial Intelligence Supplanting Humans’ (refer to blog references AI 1) is now being accelerated as players find more and more ways to create Closed Systems.

AI 17: Customers think that virtual sales agents pretend they are human agents

Intellichat has developed AI sales agents to engage with customers at trigger points within websites. For example, if a prospect looks at a product and then starts to leave the site then an AI sales agent appears and engages with a text based conversation. The image above is displayed creating a perception that there is a human sales agent involved in the conversation.

The Intellichat uses natural language designed specifically for sales. This means it has scripted responses to key words that emerge during a digital conversation. Though the Intellichat AI is limited, it only needs to achieve a small conversion of prospects walking away for it to return value.

This approach is further validation of rapid growth of an ecosystem involving human and AI Agent interactions.

Now imagine the impact to understanding emergent demand and touchpoint sales powered by smart AI Agents.

AI 16: Cloud Computing companies launch 3D Worlds as Closed Systems

As previously covered (refer to blog reference AI 15), Web 3.0 Cloud Players need to build Closed Systems as their Web 2.0 businesses come under threat.

Google has the most to loose as its core business of search-based advertising is reliant upon open systems.

It is not a surprise that Google has launched ‘Lively’, which is a 3D World. It is not a coincidence that Google’s Cloud partner IBM has been pioneering 3D Worlds within its own corporate Intranet, whilst experimenting with other 3D Worlds such as with SecondLife.

Google follows other players like Disney World 3D, SecondLife, Zwinky and Yahoo! Avatar Towns.

Already these 3D Worlds are being used to launch Web 4.0 ‘AI Complimenting Humans’ (refer to blog reference AI 1). For example, scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute have created Edd Hifeng - an avatar alike most in SecondLife, but with a key difference - the steel-grey robot is not powered by a person at a keyboard but by AI. Selmer Bringsjord, director of the Rensselaer Artificial Intelligence and Reasoning Laboratory, says that Second Life is perfect as a "very inexpensive way to test out technologies right now".

3D Worlds deliver benefits for corporates as a smarter way to do knowledge exchange. It is likely the IBM / Google Cloud combo will eventually launch 3D Worlds as a cloud service to replace corporate intranets.

This raises key questions:

1. Why has the Microsoft Cloud not launched 3D Worlds especially as it has gained considerable experience from its gaming division? Maybe it was hoping to acquire Yahoo! Avatar Towns!

2. When will the Cloud Computing leaders Amazon and Apple acquire or build 3D World services?

3. Which Cloud players will acquire the 3D Worlds SecondLife and Zingy?

4. Will Hollywood led by Disney regain the media high ground via 3D Worlds?

AI 15: Google is under threat by Closed Systems

The roadmap for the web (refer to blog reference AI 1) requires Web 3.0 ‘Cloud Computing’ to establish the foundation for Web 4.0 ‘AI Complementing Humans’ and Web 5.0 ‘AI Supplementing Humans’.

This foundation will be a Closed System that is a significant shift from the open systems associated with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0.

A Closed System means it is not accessible by the public search engines.


Closed Systems are not new.

For example, Google search can find a bank website but it cannot access inside the applications used by customers to perform banking functions. These Closed Systems are applications. Search Engines cannot access Closed Systems.

The big difference now is that Cloud Computing is designed to be a Closed System. Amazon has already attracted over 30,000 software developers – every application they build becomes another Closed System. There could well be over 1m new Cloud Apps within the next few years. The implications are profound.

This is not theory and is far more advanced than most people realise. Let’s examine just one successful Closed System.

The Apple iTunes Store is a leading Closed System. It has its own search engine, navigation trees and behavioural dynamics to find smart ways of matching customer needs. Google cannot access iTunes as it is a Closed System. As iTunes and other Closed Systems grab more and more market share the greater the threat it becomes to the search engine giants like Google.

As already covered (refer to blog reference AI 9) mobile devices are already adopting Closed Systems and thus are significantly contributing towards the value exchange shift in the Web market landscape.

Artificial Intelligence is a Closed System and thus once Web 4.0 and Web 5.0 are established Google’s core business of open systems advertising will have radically changed or they will have been acquired.

This paradigm shift is unstoppable.

A14: Robots being used for complex surgery

Robots surgeons are rapidly being accepted in the operating theatre.

neuroArm has been used to remove a tumour from a young woman's brain under the supervision of Garnette Sutherland, University of Calgary Faculty of Medicine. The key hole precision is so small it is less invasive and accelerates the time for recovery.

There are more than 800 da Vinci robots from Intuitive Surgical, a Californian company, being used in hospitals around the world for inserting heart valves and cutting out cancers.

MIRO which is a robotic-surgery system is being developed by Germany's DLR Institute of Robotics and Mechatronics and could well operate directly on a beating heart.

Maybe some of robotic capability will be upgraded to the robotic nurses designed to support patients at home (refer to blog reference AI 4).

A13: Human versus Robotic Labour costs

Industrial robots have become adept at cutting, milling, welding, assembling and operating warehouses.

More importantly, the robotic labour costs have fallen sharply (see chart).

There are over 1m worldwide industrial robots.

Most robots are built in Europe and Japan.

Around 50% of industrial robots are deployed in Asia even though labour costs are low.

The confidence is now high that there will be an explosion of service and consumer robots.

AI 12: Robots become bartenders

PAAL, a German company, has introduced Roboshaker, which is a robotic bartender.
Roboshaker is based on a small robot made by Japan's FANUC and can mix cocktail, server drinks and even clear up afterwards.

Whenever it picks up a can of drink to add to the ingredients, it examines the lid with a camera so that it can work out where to find the ring-pull.

This is another example of robots moving from industrial applications to the highly lucrative service and consumer markets.

AI 11: Consumer robots learn to use their hands

Consumer robots can now use AI to learn how to use objects that the robot has not encountered before. This learning capability is being pioneered by the University of Massachusetts Amherst using a robot called UMass Mobile Manipulator or UMan.

UMan experiments with objects and once it identifies an object's moving parts it then conducts any number of experiments to learn the optimum ways of using it to perform tasks.

"You can imagine a baby playing with a toy and pulling the different parts and seeing what moves how," says lead author and graduate student Dov Katz, who did the work with Oliver Brock, a professor of computer science.

"One of the challenges in robotics is having [a robot] act intelligently, even when it doesn't know the shape of the object," says Andrew Ng, a computer scientist at Stanford University who works on robotic gripping.

"I think their work is an important step in this direction," says Ng. "Previously, if someone wants a robot to use a pair of scissors, they will write a lot of software [defining] what scissors are and how the two blades move relative to each other. In contrast, Katz and Brock propose a completely new approach, where the robot plays with a pair of scissors by itself and figures out how the two blades are connected to each other."

Once UMan is linked to Cloud Computing it will be able to dialogue with humans and have embedded instruction to seek a particular object to perform a task. The connotations could be mind blogging as UMan interacts with humans whilst also manipulating objects at the same time. You could now imagine UMan become the house butler, bottle washer and nurse! And of course you would give your UMan a decent name (refer to blog reference AI 6).