Friday 11 July 2008

AI 15: Google is under threat by Closed Systems



The roadmap for the web (refer to blog reference AI 1) requires Web 3.0 ‘Cloud Computing’ to establish the foundation for Web 4.0 ‘AI Complementing Humans’ and Web 5.0 ‘AI Supplementing Humans’.

This foundation will be a Closed System that is a significant shift from the open systems associated with Web 1.0 and Web 2.0.

A Closed System means it is not accessible by the public search engines.


Closed Systems are not new.

For example, Google search can find a bank website but it cannot access inside the applications used by customers to perform banking functions. These Closed Systems are applications. Search Engines cannot access Closed Systems.

The big difference now is that Cloud Computing is designed to be a Closed System. Amazon has already attracted over 30,000 software developers – every application they build becomes another Closed System. There could well be over 1m new Cloud Apps within the next few years. The implications are profound.

This is not theory and is far more advanced than most people realise. Let’s examine just one successful Closed System.

The Apple iTunes Store is a leading Closed System. It has its own search engine, navigation trees and behavioural dynamics to find smart ways of matching customer needs. Google cannot access iTunes as it is a Closed System. As iTunes and other Closed Systems grab more and more market share the greater the threat it becomes to the search engine giants like Google.

As already covered (refer to blog reference AI 9) mobile devices are already adopting Closed Systems and thus are significantly contributing towards the value exchange shift in the Web market landscape.

Artificial Intelligence is a Closed System and thus once Web 4.0 and Web 5.0 are established Google’s core business of open systems advertising will have radically changed or they will have been acquired.

This paradigm shift is unstoppable.