Thursday 11 September 2008

AI 65: Ray Kurzweil, the leading AI Expert, says exponential growth is the key


Kurzweil says “When making predictions about the future, you have to think in terms of exponential growth not linear growth,” said Kurzweil. “If you count linearly from one to 30, you don’t have a very large number. But if you count 30 steps exponentially — 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128 ..... and so on, you have a very large number.”

Kurzweil said that when speculating about the future — whether it’s health, biology, life expectancy or how much sunlight a solar panel can capture — exponential growth is the key.

“This growth has led to gigantic leaps in artificial intelligence technology so that within a quarter of a century, artificial intelligence will match the range and subtlety of human intelligence,” he said.

According to Kurzweil, artificial intelligence may soon even surpass human intelligence.

Through his eyes, the future holds infinite possibilities — cures for diseases, efficient means of alternate energy production and a world where humans live well past the age of 100 as science and technology advance the world we live in.